At the upcoming Munich Security Summit, US Democrats will urge European leaders to stand firm against Donald Trump's unpredictable presidency. With Europe divided on how to navigate this relationship, the summit promises to be a pivotal moment. Among the attendees are some of Trump's most vocal critics, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. These leaders have openly criticized Trump's behavior, with Newsom suggesting that appeasing him makes Europe appear weak on the global stage. Gallego echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the damage Trump's petty behavior is causing to America's international reputation and economic might.
However, the US delegation will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who may offer a more nuanced message than Vice-President JD Vance's controversial speech last year. European leaders are divided on their strategy towards Trump, with some advocating for a more assertive diplomatic approach to counter his 'wrecking ball politics' and others prioritizing maintaining his goodwill for European security. The debate over shared values and disengagement has intensified since Trump's insults towards the EU and his global resource imperialism. Despite traditional efforts to avoid domestic political differences, the US delegation's stance this year appears irrepressible, with Democrats likely aligning with Europe in rejecting Trump's coercive diplomacy.
Some Democrats might advise patience, as Trump's declining poll numbers have already led Republicans in Congress to defy him on tariffs. However, many in the West believe the old rules-based order is gone, replaced by a new deals-based order where great powers transact and transgress. This shift was highlighted by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos, who emphasized the unlikelihood of the old order's return. The Munich conference, attended by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will focus on this interregnum.
Macron, at one extreme, warns of intensifying tensions post-Greenland moment, where Trump threatened tariffs against European countries. He describes the Trump administration as 'openly anti-European' and seeks the EU's dismemberment. Macron suggests that bowing down to Trump is not the solution, as Europe has tried this strategy without success. At the other end of the spectrum, Rutte argues that Europe cannot defend itself without the US, indicating a conciliatory approach. The recent row over Greenland suggests that Europe's economic power can influence Trump's decisions.
The path to European sovereignty in defense is challenging, with increased spending but a recognition that effective rearmament takes time. Starmer emphasizes the need for credible US capability commitments in any security guarantees related to Ukraine. Despite this, Europe is already distancing itself from America in various ways. Carney, Starmer, and Macron have reset relations with China, offering dialogue without enmity, taking advantage of Beijing's capacity to reshape global supply chains. Italy and Poland, traditionally close to the US, have joined other European nations in refusing Trump's Board of Peace, an initiative centered around Trump's ego rather than the UN.
Ultimately, Europe's future remains intertwined with Ukraine's fate. Trump's demand for a peace deal on Putin's terms within months, and Vance's declaration that it's 'not our war,' forces Europe to make critical choices. As Macron might say, waiting for the Democrats' return won't save Kyiv.
